Wednesday, November 6, 2013

2013 NMSU prediction blog

Here is last year's Prediction Blog entry. I was Two games off on the overall record and got the WAC record

Here is the 2011-12 Prediction Blog entry: Two games off and got the WAC record.

Kind of interesting if you are feeling nostalgic.

I have the Aggies going 25-7 overall this year and 14-2 in the Western Athletic Conference. That's an 11-5 non-conference record and a 14-2 mark in the WAC. I think the Aggies can, and probably should run the table in the WAC, but I could still see two road losses.

The Aggies open this season on Friday against Western Michigan in the first of three games in Hawaii. NMSU plays back to back games against W. Michigan and Tennessee State and then play Hawaii at midnight local time (3 a.m. mountain) on Tuesday.

I think that Hawaii game will be tough. NMSU has historically had off nights against Hawaii when the schools were in the WAC together. NMSU does have an experienced group who are familiar with making that trip and playing in Hawaii so I'm going to give them the game. My understanding is that NMSU takes a flight back and travels overnight so they will be off one full day before hosting UTEP on Friday in their home opener.

The Aggies win their home opener and beat Northern Colorado for a 5-0 start. I think the Aggies could sweep UTEP this year, but I'm giving them a split at 5-1.  The Aggies enter the toughest stretch of the season at 7-1 before a road trip to Colorado State.

I think Colorado State, New Mexico, Gonzaga are all competitive games for the Aggies. But they play them all on the road. I just haven't seen anything in the past to believe the Aggies can pull out road victories although I think as long as they are competitive games, the team can benefit from them.

I think the Aggies lose at Colorado State, beat the Lobos at home, lose to Top 20 teams Gonzaga and Arizona on the road, beat Drake on the road, and lost at UNM.

NMSU returns home to beat Northern New Mexico and South Alabama before conference play.

I think NMSU starts 8-0 in WAC play before the Seattle/Idaho road trip. I gave them a split on that trip. I also gave the Aggies one loss on their final three-game road trip with games at Texas Pan Am, Utah Valley and Bakersfield. Again, the Aggies should win all three of these games but we have seen them almost lose at Bakersfield recently. It will be late in the year at that point and anything can happen on the road.

What are your thoughts? predictions??


Anonymous said...

I generally agree with your predictions and do anticipate the Aggies will win the WAC. I do think one or 2 more road losses in the WAC are possible. I am concerned about this Aggie team on defense. As we have seen in the past, the Aggies win games on defense and rebounding and the key players have been people like Sy and Watson. Defense and rebounding were their strengths. I don't see anybody on this year's team to fill those voids. This team appears, with the exception of Mullings, to be pretty slow on defense. The Aggies have usually played man-to-man defense and it seems like this team is more suited to playing zone. I see opponents pulling our bigs away from the basket and that will impact our rebounding. On offense, I'm waiting to see if playing 2 big guys at a time is effective because one of them will have to be able to hit the 15 foot jumpshot to make this work.

Anonymous said...

I like the Aggies this year if the point guard play is steady. Need a solid floor leader a la Laroche.

I don't see the Aggies losing to a Bakersfield. I also think they will beat Colorado State on the road.

All of this is assuming Mullings is healthy.

I think the Aggies will be a handful for every team on their schedule. That includes the Zags and Arizona. Not sure they win those games on the road but it will not be an easy win for these top 10 teams. We are just SO HUGE and athletic its daunting. I'd like to see the Aggies become more physical in order to ware teams out late in the 2nd half.

Also, if we get consistent 3 point shooting from Aronis, Bouvac, KCRM, and TL, we will be tough to beat. I think Renaldo should also increase his outside attempts.


Anonymous said...

The Aggies will barely crack 20 wins this year.

But they will again win the deteriorating WAC again.

Nov. 30 through Dec. 17 is going to be a long stretch, I see 1 win, if any, in that timeline.

I see a disappointing 1-3 possible 0-4 record against our highway rivals...

The coaching limits the Aggies from doing anything, that's the biggest problem.

Anonymous said...

Eldridge and Landry are good defensive players to go with Mullings...Weir said he thinks our perimeter defense will be better than last year. We'll miss Sy, but Dixon will play more at the 4 this year where he is a better defender than in the post. Not sure the overall defense will suffer.

Anonymous said...

I have a feeling a lot of our games are going to be lost at the free throw line. Have we made any progress in improving there?

Anonymous said...

who is the negative nancy that thinks we will barely win 20 games this year? i think we will definitely match our win total from last year. maybe even better. last year we lacked pg play, and this year we will be be a lot better at that position thanks to TL. it looks like matej will be getting a lot of playing time this year, so we will always have a shooter on the court with him and arronis. we also got chili back so we should be pretty dominant. sim has got a year under his belt so he should be a better than last year. dixon is a seasoned vet now so he should be dominant as well. DK is kinda like mullings, so when mullings goes out we will still have a playmaker in DK.

Anonymous said...

I think our chances of winning rivalry games, closing out road games, and being competitive against the top dogs we are playing early will all hinge on the development and play of our PG position. Good teams last year smelled blood and exploited that weakness. If that doesn't develop fast enough, we'll still do fine in conference play, but have a low ceiling again come tourney time.

Anonymous said...

We are deep. Remi Barry hardly even gets mentioned anymore and he has huge potential. He could be an x-factor.