Wednesday, February 24, 2010

Postseason possibilities

Sorry for the lack of postings early this week. Contrary to another poster, I have been busy. The prep teams are in their postseason and for some reason that I don't understand, college baseball and softball teams are playing games in February. But I know it's an important time of year so I apologize.

first here is today's RPI ranking entering tonight's game against Idaho. Have the Aggies ever been ranked this high (68) in anyone's recollection? The WAC is also having a solid year, which is at least higher than the past two years that I know of.

I'm working on a story for the weekend on what this all means. The strength of schedule is certainly more important I would think and I don't know how much better than the 89 will get but two wins over top 53 teams would be considered you would think.

Here are a couple of other computer rankings, this on the WAC and this one on individual teams .

Either way, unlike the last two years when the Aggies turned down invites to the CBI, the Aggies are a lock to the Postseason NIT.


Anonymous said...

I think the Aggies' last lost hurt them a lot as far as the rankings go. I will be interesting to see what happens if the Aggies lose any of the last 4 games.

I don't believe that NMSU is a lock for the NIT. I've seen the team disappointed before, so I guess I'll believe it when I see it. Bottom line, if the Aggies want to go to post season, and I don't mean buying their way into the CBI, then they need to win the WAC conference tournament.

jb said...

Jason, I'm surprised you aren't aware of It would make your job a lot easier.

Here's our historical RPI ranks going back to the Channing era:

09: 117
08: 132
07: 70
06: 116
05: 297
04: 197
03: 120
02: 103

As you can see, this is the best team we've had in recent memory, even better (according to RPI) than Reggie's tournament team (which most people forget was NIT bound if the WAC tourney wasn't in Las Cruces).

You should also be aware of, a code run by a USU fan that predicts RPI rank when it matters- at the end of the season based on thousands of simulations.

If we win out (including the conference tourney) our RPI could be as low as 35, and with something more reasonable like a loss in Logan and a loss in the tourney final to USU, we'd be in the low 50's.

I agree that the WAC is better than it has been since 2007, and really, teams 2-9 are better than 2007. The incorrect perception that the WAC is a poor conference is only because we don't have a juggernaut like the Fazekas Nevada team that is running around knocking off national powers. The rest of the teams are better than they used to be.

Anonymous said...

no, they aren't a lock for the nit. the nit takes the second place team unless they win the wac tournament, then they would take the regular season wac winner if they don't win the tournament. confused?
boston was an idiot last year for turning the cbi down. the money issue and/or excuse could cost this team. just look at what utep got out of the cbi last year. they lost in the final series to oregon state and look how it helped utep gain experience going in to this season. that fool boston can't see past his own ego. how about doing something for competitive advantage rather than covering his a** because he was dumb enough to add women's soccer in a time when the budget couldn't handle it. don't get me wrong, i like soccer, but it wasn't the right time. so now, boston is making our men's hoops team pay the price. lets face it, nmsu is known for its mens hoops team. we are one of the few programs who have been to the ncaa final four. now that is saying something. so instead of boston really taking care of this program, he brought in women's soccer to suck the money away from mens hoops and a few of the other better teams here like, volleyball, women's hoops and baseball. when will all wake up and get boston a bus ticket out of town.
good luck menzies, i hope you all can get it done.

Anonymous said...

Who cares about the NIT? Seriously. The only one that matters is the Big Dance.

Anonymous said...

Both utep #25 and unm #10 are ranked.

All three coaches came in around the same time.
While Menzies inherited a heck of a team, we have taken a back seat to both our rivals that inherited very little.

All I can say is, Menzies and the team better get into the NCAA or the NIT to show progress.

It's pretty damn embarasing to see both our rivals get all the national attention!!


Anonymous said...

I'm glad that UNM and UTEP are doing well. It's good for the area. It also makes our SOS and RPI stronger. I'm not sure the Lobos or the Miners could come to the Pan Am right now and win. Our talent level is one of the best in the west.

I still hate UNM and UTEP.

Anonymous said...

From The final RPI of the Reggie Theus NCAA year was 69. Henson's 2000 team that played in the NIT at Arizona State ended up at 65. His NCAA team the prior year was ranked 75. McCarthy's last NCAA team in 1994 (the first year of the RPI) was ranked 72, but the following year's team ended with a 48 RPI.

Folks...we should realize that this team is one of the best Aggie squads ever. Remember, these rankings look at the whole season, including the pre-Gillenwater and even pre-McKines games; imagine the rankings if they were all available all season. Too bad so many, even many season ticket holders, have missed seeing them.

Anonymous said...

I believe the Aggies are almost a lock for the NIT...take a look at for the thoughts of a guy who has a pretty good record of predicting the NIT.

Going to Reno and beating Idaho, Louisiana Tech and Utah State for the WAC title is certainly within the realm of possibility. (Beating Utah State in Logan next week would likely change the championship path to Boise State, Nevada and Utah State...not sure I really want to face Nevada at home.)