Looking at the NMSU bench

I am picking Nevada first and NMSU second. Nevada has four of the best 10 players in the WAC but they aren't nearly as deep as the Aggies. It will be interesting to see how that plays out.

The Aggies' depth resides in their front court. NMSU has potential to drive teams crazy with length in their zone and full court trap, which could provide a lot of easy baskets. The backcourt isn't as deep as replacing Gordo Castillo could prove difficult.

Rotation guys to start season

Guards: Freshmen Terrel de Rouen and Daniel Mullings — At the time I'm writing this, KC Ross-Miller and Sim Bhullar haven't been cleared. Marvin Menzies was in Europe last week recruiting so I haven't had a chance to ask about Bhullar seeing the court this year if he was cleared. Of all the players on the roster, Bhullar is the one most likely to play in the NBA or at least get drafted. He won't be here for four years. His sister originally said he would pay his own way this year and redshirt for next year, which seems like the best plan since the Aggies do have depth in the frontcourt. Ross-Miller could likely get on the court in a back up role as well whenever he's cleared, but Terrel de Rouen could be a local player who plays a role. I don't know how much high school basketball you've watched, but I would say de Rouen was more athletic than any guard on last year's team except maybe CK. Daniel Mullings could be further ahead than Eric Weary at this point, although Weary is more of a shooter, which is a glaring weakness as the season begins.

Wings: Freshman Remi Barry and junior Bandja Sy — Menzies can ride whichever French player has the hot hand. At least early on, that’s how I see this position playing out. Sy is a bench player who the Aggies needed in the starting lineup after Wendell McKines got hurt. He started 20 games last year, averaging 17 minutes per game. The minutes dried up as the season went on but he did show amazing improvement from year 1 to year 2. It seemed like he got lost a lot defensively. I think one way he can find the court consistently is if he improves on last year's 19-of-70 (27 percent) shooting from long range. Perhaps a year under his belt will help his confidence.

I’m just as intrigued as Aggies fans are about Remi Barry. Afterall, a player who was apparently considering St. Johns, Arizona State and UCLA must be worth the wait right?  He hasn’t played competitive basketball, at least by my estimation, since his junior year in high school at American Heritage in Florida. He transferred to a high school in California but couldn’t play his senior year and he sat out at NMSU last year. I think the jury is still out on  him but at 6-7, I’m sure he has the physical tools to contribute at some point. But I don’t think coaches consider him a savior or are putting additional pressure on him.

Frontcourt: Sophomore Tshilidzi Nephawe, Sophomore Renaldo Dixon and junior BJ West — The Aggies are loaded in the frontcourt. Along with Christian Kabongo, Renaldo Dixon and BJ West are the two other players I’m looking forward to seeing. I think Dixon may be a starter as a junior and West is a great energy player coming off the bench. West only averaged 9 minutes per game last year but he had 22 blocks (third on the team) and pulled down 3.3 rebounds per game.  I think Dixon may be the better offensive threat, which could give him an edge at the outset, but both can play multiple positions and back up Rahman, Nephawe and McKines with confidence.

First look at NMSU roster

While practice doesn't begin for another month, today was the first time teams can use some of their allotted court time as a complete team practice rather than groups of four.

This is how the roster looks to me so far, although it will probably change before the season and then even into the season as younger players start to feel more comfortable.

Starting five
C — Hamidu Rahman
PF — Wendell McKines
SF — Tyrone Watson
SG — Christian Kabongo
PG — Hernst Laroche

The way I think about the makeup of this team is three or possibly four guys have to play great every night for the Aggies to have a chance to win the league. Those three are obviously seniors Wendell McKines, Hernst Laroche and Hamidu Rahman. I'll throw in Tshilidzi Nephawe as well. As I've written before, I'm not sold on the team's ability to score, but I think they have the players who are capable of defending. Whether or not they can focus on that end and rebounding for an entire season remains to be seen. It didn't happen last year, as the Aggies had the same size they have now and were even  in rebounding margin for the season. That should change with the return of McKines, who if he would have played to his average of 8.4 boards per game last year, he would have led the team by almost two rebounds per game. They are going to need McKines to score however. I could see him get into the 15-18 ppg realm. His career high is 22 and he's a career 9.5 ppg player shooting 50 percent from the floor. But with the absence of a dominant scorer on the team, perhaps McKines' focus to score will take him away from the other things he does well ie, rebounding and making players around him better by doing all of the little things.

Last year was a wasted season for Hamidu Rahman due to a calf injury that he never recovered from. Rahman averaged 10 ppg and 8 rebounds per game as a sophomore. Nephawe didn't prove to be much of a rebounder as a freshman at 4.4 per game. His fitness level never got to a point to dominate a game. He could have played all the minutes he could handle with Rahman's injury, but still averaged just 18 minutes per game. Still though, any combination of Rahman and Nephawe could yield 15 plus points combined and 10-15 rebounds per game. Perhaps Nephawe will start and finish games since he was a 76 percent free throw shooter last year. Or Rahman could start as a senior with Nephawe finishing games. It doesn't matter. The Aggies need production from this position and it doesn't seem like the WAC is loaded with frontcourt talent so it should be possible.

Laroche has started every game since he's been here. To think that Ross-Miller would unseat him is ridiculous, but he certainly needs a backup, whether it's Ross-Miller if and when he's cleared, or freshman Terell de Rouen. Laroche is at his best with weapons around him. He was asked to score last year and didn't seem up to it. His numbers were good, shooting 44 and 34 percent from 3-point range but  his career scoring season of 11 ppg wasn't good enough and it won't be good enough this year. Unless a young player emerges in the backcourt as a perimeter threat, I think Laroche needs to be in the 15 ppg realm this year.

CK is one player who should, and who needs to, provide perimeter scoring. CK was the only player capable of getting into the lane and creating for teammates, but he was terrible from the field (19 percent from 3-point range) and committed a turnover (82) for every assist he had (82). The thing I liked last year about CK and hope he carried into his sophomore year, is his willingness to play defense. I thought he did a good job on Randy Culpepper. With CK and Laroche at the top of the zone to begin games and pestering teams in the backcourt of their trap could be pretty good. You would think that a college player would put the time in the gym addressing a 19 percent effort from 3-point range. If so, I think CK could be between 10-13 ppg.

Tyrone Watson does everything for this team. He was playing way out of position last year at the four spot and was still fifth in scoring (7.6), second in steals (39), third in assists (71) and third in rebounding (4.9 rpg). McKines' return means Watson can move to his natural position on the wing. I think Watson is capable of getting to the 8-10 ppg mark.

If you look at the high end of my estimate, the Aggies starting five is capable of putting up 71 points per game. Not a bad output but that's based on every player increasing his production significantly over  a period of time.

Even if they fall short of offensive production, all five starters do have the ability to defend their position. If they rebound, they could cut down on the 44 percent opponents shot against them last year. Not bad, but the Aggies also shot 44 percent, which I believe shows they were happy to exchange baskets. Added up to a .500 season.

I'll look at the bench in a blog entry on Friday.

Troy Gillenwater

Here is my story on Troy Gillenwater, who signed a contract earlier this week with Cyprus League team Apollon Limassol.

I have found myself in the minority about Gillenwater and what effect it will have on the Aggies this season. He was a Top 10 talent in the WAC throughout the past four years I've been covering NMSU.

Time for a random Top 15 list. Top 15 WAC players I've seen in person. (Last four seasons)

1. Luke Babbitt, Nevada (Lottery pick who didn't crack a rotation.
2. Jaycee Carroll, Utah State (If he was three inches taller.....)
3. Paul George, Fresno State (I wasn't impressed with George in college, but he was the best player on the court when he tried and ended up starting for a playoff team)
4. Justin Hawkins, NMSU (Hawkins had everything you could ask for, post offense and defense, rebounding and got better from the perimeter as his senior season went on)
5. Troy Gillenwater, NMSU (Gillenwater came off the bench as a sophomore. With Young and Wendell on last year's team, he could have been better. Wasn't well suited for the toll of being the man every night)
6. Armon Johnson, Nevada (Surprise when he was drafted but his size was the difference. But he was a great defensive player and got wherever he needed to go on the court)
7. Adrian Oliver, San Jose State (better getting to the basket than JY, often played the point)
8. Marcelus Kemp, Nevada
9. Reggie Larry, Boise State
10. Wendell McKines, NMSU (Doesn't have the perimeter skills that Kemp and Larry did, both of whom were around his size)
11. Jahmar Young, NMSU
12. Gary Wilkinson, Utah State
13. Tai Wesley, Utah State
14. Greg Smith, Fresno State
15. Jonathan Gibson, NMSU

Sim Bhullar story

Here is my story on Sim Bhullar. Let me know if you non Sun-News online subscribers are able to read it. I'll put links to all of my hoops stories online from here on out.

Aggies land another big man

Internet reports this morning have NMSU landing 7-foot-5 Xavier de-commit Sim Bhullar. Here is an interesting article from a Xavier writer, who describes Bhullar as, "expected to be a project at Xavier and was a likely redshirt had he stayed with the Muskies."

Also from the article.
The 7'5" recruit was slated to be part of Xavier's 2012 class.  However, after reportedly being spotted on Xavier's campus as late as last week, Bhullar apparently decided to head west where he could play this year.


so far the best story is from the Sporting News, which talks about Bhullar's plan to originally spend another year in Prep school. 


I spoke briefly with an assistant at Hunington Prep in West Virgina, where Bhullar played last year. Here is a quick description. 


"Is a good one-on-one defender on the block and will block shots around the basket. Doesn't rebound out of his area well.  Has to put forth the effort and get the laziness out of him. Offensively he has great hands and a jump shot. He has the tools to be great."





 

Grades are good

Just  a quick note that entering the fall semester, no NMSU men's player will miss time due to academics and should be good to go when practice starts in October. That includes walk ons such as Temjae Singleton and Terrel de Rouen. The only question mark is KC Ross-Miller, whose situation isn't a matter of grades, but rather working through what has been a unique transfer process.

New APR standards and recruiting calendar

I'm working on a story about the recent bullet points coming out of NCAA meetings in Indianapolis in the past week.

I'm still talking around, but I did get ahold of New Mexico State athletics director McKinley Boston about the increased APR expectations, which could result in the elimination of postseason play, as well as a new recruiting calendar for college basketball.

The increased APR expectations aren't going to be a problem exclusive to NMSU at all regarding men's hoops, as this article clearly shows. But the Aggies' hoops team is the only sport at NMSU with postseason expectations that falls below the current standard of 925. Unless there is a miracle on the football field this season or in seasons in the near future.

NMSU has done a good job since the APR was established of increasing its score every year. The Aggies had a 906 score in the most recent report. What saved NMSU from incurring postseason penalties in the past was the fact that they constantly improved over time. If the new standard of 930 is passed (more on that later) the NCAA is trying to do away with that waiver process, which kept the Aggies eligible for the postseason run they made to the NCAA Tourney two years ago.

While the NCAA seems determined to put an increased emphasis on academics, Boston still believes there will be a gray area depending on certain situations in how the new standard is implemented.

"We are talking about three or four years out," Boston said. "Schools with resources and money will find a way to fix it. I think that what we are seeing today and what we will be dealing with in the next three to four years, that the elimination of the waivers and appeal process is going to be so unfair to individual student athletes. You can always play hard ball but there are going to be extenuating circumstances where people just make mistakes. I don't see presidents being that inflexible myself."

NMSU and schools like NMSU will have a bigger adjustment to make I think. The school has used walk ons before to up the APR score and in order to compete on the court, some coaches take chances on players who may not be able to get the work done in the clasroom. Marvin Menzies has done a good job bringing in guys who aren't as liable in school than other coaches.

But let's look at his last roster.
Each player is worth two points per semester. One point is an eligibility point and other point is retention.
Abdoulaye N'doye transferred for more playing time but was eligible at the time he left making him a 1-for-2. Troy Gillenwater will count two points against NMSU or leaving while ineligible at the time he left (0-2) But had Gillenwater been eligible, there is a rule in the APR where if a player leaves school to pursue a pro career, he would only count for 1 point. Had Gillenwater been eligible at the time he left school (that's not to say he would have missed next season if he didn't leave) he wouldn't have hurt the APR.

"The key for us is the implementation," Boston said. "We are talking about anywhere from a three to five year cycle and I think we are going to be in good shape. I'm not concerned. Losing three points is not a bad thing. You don't want to lose any though."

It may not be a bad thing right  now Boston and other schools are hoping that three points here or there will not add up and cost teams postseason consideration.

While it was a group of presidents that suggested the new APR guidelines, a number of those individuals will also be voting on the proposal at the next NCAA Board of Directors meeting in October. Since presidents suggested it and presidents are voting on it, chances are presidents will pass it.

"We all have a vote but if people are opposed to the new APR, there will plenty of presidents who will lobby against it," Boston said. "It will probably pass but it doesn't mean there won't be plenty of debates."

Also garnering headlines in Indy was the establishment of new recruiting calendar and text messages. Boston actually sits on the NCAA leadership council, which has been working on a proposal to the NCAA Board.

"It's been a year long process," Boston said. "We have had focus group discussions with coaches at the Final Four, the leadership of the Basketball coaches association about third party influences on recruiting."

Boston said his group last met Aug. 1-2 in Indianapolis, but its purpose was heavily talked about last week as well as reported on. 

"We are still fine tuning what has to be done but the recruiting calendar and access to players are the highlights," Boston said. "It hasn't come forward as a finished product to the committee yet as a finished product but it will be ready to go to the Board by the October meeting."

Regarding a timeframe where changes including moving back the time a player can make official visits to re-implementing the text message as a form of communication, Boston said, "The current calendar is already in place. I don't think next summer's calendar will be the same as this summer's."

While the APR increase and the new schedule in recruiting are not linked exclusively, there is a correlation to be made there, at least in hoops.

Players transferring is a major factor in a school's APR number in the current college climate. From a basketball standpoint, I think the hope behind a new recruiting schedule means a better relationship between players and coaches and a better relationship leads to more player retention.

"Coaches have a longer time to know recruits and hopefully players and coaches will make better decisions," Boston said. "Coaches and players will make better decisions if they spend more time off campus and on campus. There will be less mistakes."