Saturday, January 5, 2013

Texas State: Three keys and a prediction

Bandja Sy could have another big night against  Texas State tonight. Aggies need him to provide an offensive presence from here on out.

It was good to see Bandja Sy, and the Aggies for that matter, take what the defense gave them on Thursday night against UTSA. Most of his 9 field goals were lay ups or dunks. I expect to see the same tonight against Texas State, but playing efficient offense, moving the ball (21 assists) and getting out in transition were all things I think the Aggies can take moving forward, even though the competition will be slightly better.

Stop Staff/Wright: 6-7 Texas State forward Joel Wright is 5th in the WAC in scoring at 15.3 ppg. Unlike UTSA, Texas State has one player with size who actually contributes in 6-10 Matt Staff, who averages 13 ppg and 6 rpg. Wright leads the WAC in usage percentage and points per 40 minutes. I think NMSU matches up well with him with Watson/Sy. NMSU needs to make Staff work on defense as well with Bhullar and Dixon because Staff is foul prone, fouling out of five games and having four fouls seven other times.

Keep going to the well: NMSU scored 48 points in the paint on Thursday. I got the feeling that the Aggies were just toying with UTSA, finally making their run to open the second half. Texas State opponents shoot 47 percent and 53 percent against the Bobcats on 2-pt field goals, meaning they too give up easy baskets. Texas State turns the ball over 15 times per game as well, which could produce some offense.

Free throws/Turnovers: Marvin Menzies still was not pleased with the Aggies effort from the foul line (58 percent) and the 16 turnovers, despite many of them coming when the outcome was already determined. Menzies wants the team to play focused for an entire game if they are a championship team.

I'll make this quick. I don't think Texas State is that good. I have NMSU winning 81-60

No comments: