Monday, February 10, 2014

Seattle: Three keys unlocked

Establish the paint: The Aggies were obviously able to do this with a career high 22 points on 10 of 14 shooting with eight rebounds against Seattle. Renaldo Dixon was also involved with 11 points. NMSU made 5 3s, 4 in the first half, but only as a result of wide open shots either from big men kick outs (Sim Bhullar had four assists) or in transition. NMSU didn't settle for the 3. For some reason, Seattle did not play zone, and they did not pressure until NMSU was already off to a 71 percent start from the field. NMSU's 16 assists showed that the Aggies picked them apart.

Rebounding: I don't think it's any coincidence that the Aggies playing man to man for most of the game led to out rebounding the WACs best rebounding team by 2, two days after playing zone and letting Idaho out rebound them by the same margin. Seattle still had 16 offensive rebounds, but NMSU collected 12 offensive boards.

Turnovers: I didn't think Seattle would match their high turnover game at Las Cruces in their own gym and they didn't with 14. The Aggies did a good job in the first half, but still committed some bad ones in the second half. KC Ross Miller moved to inbound the ball for the Aggies against the press with Daniel Mullings and DK Eldridge (combined 11 turnovers) in the backcourt, all three decent ball handlers, while prior to the weekend, it was normally the four position who inbounds.

Saturday, February 8, 2014

Seattle: Three keys and a prediction

Honestly, I was going to say NMSU would lose this game entering the weekend, thinking it was the second game of what I believed to be the most difficult road trip in conference play. And then the Aggies lost on Thursday at Idaho. Marvin Menzies questioned his team's mental toughness on the road, as well as effort and energy level on the defensive end and on the glass.

Since NMSU lost its third straight WAC road game, I really have a hard time believing the Aggies lost to Seattle tonight, but Seattle does some things that have normally hurt the Aggies, pressure full court, shoot the 3, play small with guys who can get past the Aggies big guys.

NMSU wins 82-76

Establish the paint: NMSU has let teams off the hook in my opinion with the 3 point shooting this season. There are certainly games the Aggies have knocked them down and I think overall this year's team is a better shooting team, but the 3 should be complimentary to the big guys and to Daniel Mullings and DK Eldridge driving into the paint. I think Seattle will pressure like they did in the second half and pack the zone like Idaho did. To make matters worse for Seattle, they are without Deshaun Sunderhaus (knee), who had 22 points and 12 rebounds against NMSU the first time around. Renaldo Dixon has 18 points against Seattle the first time and obviously Sim Bhullar did not play. NMSU needs to get the big guys going on the offensive end because it seems if they are not involved, they do tend to check out as the game goes on.

Rebounding: Seattle is the No. 1 rebounding team in the WAC and NMSU is No. 2. Seattle out rebounded New Mexico State 35-33 with 16 offensive rebounds in the first game. Idaho out rebounded NMSU 38-34 on Thursday with 15 offensive rebounds. Personally I think the Aggies rebound much better in man to man defense. We will see how they defend Seattle. I think the Aggies want to play man to man tonight, but if interior players are in foul trouble, the Aggies could play zone again.

Turnovers: Despite facing pressure full court in the second half against Seattle, the Aggies only had nine turnovers in the first game. NMSU has struggled at times against teams full court as Renaldo Dixon or whoever plays the four spot struggles against pressure if they can't find the point guard. Seattle was extremely sloppy with the ball in the first game with 16 turnovers. Can't count on that again.

Thursday, February 6, 2014

Idaho: Three keys unlocked

Normally I wait until I get a chance to talk to Marvin Menzies before posting my postgame blog entry. On his radio comments he said some discouraging things, implying the Aggies played soft on the interior and breaking out the dreaded "All about three games in March" commentary.

Menzies is right in a literal sense. Even if NMSU would have run the table, an at large selection was a longshot. The NCAA Tournament seeding dropped as soon as they lost one WAC game. But failing to win a regular season championship would be a certain disappointment, although it's not the No. 1 goal.

One stat I wanted to add was the free throw disparity. NMSU was 6-15 for the game. Idaho was 15-20. It was one of two stats that jump out at you. The other being Idaho's rebounding.

Road win: Obviously this didn't happen, and now we are still wondering what happens to this year's team when they leave Las Cruces. The Aggies are 1-3 on the WAC road and lost their last three. Interestingly enough, NMSU's lone road win at GCU is all that is keeping the Aggies ahead of Grand Canyon in second place, which doesn't mean much considering Grand Canyon isn't eligible for the WAC Tournament.

Contain Stephen Madison/Connor Hill: Madison got going early on with 11 points in the first half after scoring just nine points in Las Cruces. He finished with 24 points and 8 rebounds, including three offensive rebounds. Hill scored 8 of his 10 points in the second half, drilling a dagger 3 that made it a two possession game at 64-58. Madison is more important to focus on, but they both roamed free against a zone defense the Aggies refused to come out of in the second half.

Rebounds/turnovers: NMSU only had seven turnovers. Instead, idaho got it's offense from offensive rebounding with 15, scoring 16 second chance points, outrebounding NMSU by four and by eight in the second half.

Idaho: Three keys and a prediction

New Mexico State has three of the top 4 largest margins of victory so far and the Aggies 24-point victory over Idaho in the first meeting this year is the largest of them all.

Idaho just isn't a good offensive team. Unless the Aggies have a horrible night on that end of the floor, I think the Aggies win 84-70

Road win: Daniel Mullings said the Aggies two road losses were a result of the Aggies not taking those teams seriously. He said he hated it resulted in losses, but that it was wakeup call. Other players and coaches have said as much as well, but tonight is NMSU's first road game since dropping games at Chicago State and UMKC.

Contain Stephen Madison/Connor Hill: These are the Vandals two players you have to account for. It was obvious in the first game as well that Idaho wants to play through Madison. He was 3-11 from the field and 0-2 on 3s for nine points. Hill had Mullings defending him for much of the game and finished 2-5 from 3 point range. Outside of those two players, Idaho's next scorer is Glen Dean with 11. 5 points per game.

Rebounds/Turnovers: Limiting turnovers is always a key for this team and it's always a key on the road. Idaho only scores 67 points per game so the Aggies can't give them free offense with turnovers. NMSU is coming off a 31-17 rebounding edge over Utah Valley. The Aggies out rebounded Idaho by five in the first game.

Midseason All WAC

I could make an argument for seven New Mexico State players in the Top 10 at the midway point of Western Athletic Conference play. We know it never works out that way though, since it seems a team's success tends to weigh more than the eye test or numbers.

With that in mind, here is my WAC first and second team at the midway point. I used WAC only stats. I did not include Sim Bhullar since he has only played in two games, although he will certainly make an impact by the end of conference play. The First team is a little guard heavy while the second team has more interior players.

What do you think?

First team
Daniel Mullings, New Mexico State: Mullings is fifth in WAC scoring at 18.1 ppg, 9th in rebounding with 7.3 per game and second in steals, clearly the best player in the WAC thus far.

Daniel Mullings is a no-brainer first team WAC player. Who joins him on the first team?
Photo for the Sun-News by Gary Mook

Holton Hunsaker, Utah Valley: I will say one thing about the WAC. There are several good point guards in the league. Personally, I think Grayson at Bakersfield is the best of them, but Hunsaker lands here because he's the best player on the first place team. Hunsaker is averaging 12.3 points and 3.25 assists per game, and shoots the 3 at 33 percent. Not great numbers, but from watching him, he's clearly a leader on the league's first place team.

Tshilidzi Nephawe, New Mexico State: Nephawe carried the load without Bhullar in the lineup, averaging 12.4 points per game. He scored in double figures in six of the Aggies first eight WAC games and he had 9 points in the other two games. Nephawe is third in the league in rebounding with 9.5 per game and he leads the WAC with 2.50 blocks per game.

Jerome Garrison, Grand Canyon: Garrison leads the WAC in scoring at 20.8 points per game. He is forth in the WAC in 3 points percentage at 47.5 percent. He also did it against the Aggies, scoring 25 points against NMSU, one of just two league losses thus far.

Isiah Umipig, Seattle: This is more of an eye test selection for me since Seattle is in last place. Umipig is tied for ninth in scoring with 15.9 points per game but he's still the league's overall scorer. What I liked about Umipig is that although he has a green light, he looks to get his teammates involved first, averaging 4 assists per game, which is tied for fourth in the WAC

Second team
Stephen Madison, Idaho: Madison is a good player who is on a bad team with no offensive threats around him outside of Connor Hill. He's third in scoring (18.8 ppg), seventh in rebounding (8 rpg) and he's 15th in assists with 2.38.

Renaldo Dixon, New Mexico State: Dixon started the Aggies first eight WAC games. He's been up and down on both ends, but his 33 points against UMKC is the most for a WAC player this year and it showed what he's capable of. He's averaging 6.5 rebounds per game and he's sixth in blocked shots with 1.25 per game.

Issiah Grayson, Bakersfield: I thought Bakersfield would be better, and I think after watching all of the teams play against the Aggies, they could be the team NMSU would least like to play in the tournament. Grayson is second in the WAC in scoring wtih 20 ppg and fourth in assists with 4 apg.

Ben Aird, Utah Valley: Just from watching Aird against NMSU, the word awkward came to mind, but he's averaging 14 ppg and 9.9 rebounds per game in WAC play.

Killian Larson, Grand Canyon: Larson is the only player in the WAC averaging a double double and that gets him on the list with 14 points and 10.5 rebounds per game in WAC play.

Wednesday, February 5, 2014

The more things change ...

Following is a column I wrote on Sunday following New Mexico State's victory over first-place Utah Valley.

And here is a column I wrote last year near the halfway point in conference play. 

Anyone see a similarity other than that I repeat myself?

 Once again, Aggie men's basketball plays better when the chips are down
Halfway through conference play, the Aggies are right where they want to be.
It's not where New Mexico State basketball fans, or myself, or even other Western Athletic Conference coaches thought they'd be.
But it's where this team needs to be from a mental standpoint: trailing, chasing, playing with a chip on its shoulder.
The Aggies are not, or haven't been, good front runners.
NMSU enters the second half of WAC play one game behind Utah Valley. What makes fans frustrated is the team thoroughly defeated the first-place - and previously WAC unbeaten - Wolverines 72-49 on Saturday at the Pan American Center, showing that NMSU is more than capable of dominating the opposition on the nightly basis.
It begs the question, 'Why can't the Aggies play that way every night?'
"To play that well is something that I think we can build off of and take on the road with us," head coach Marvin Menzies said.
Perhaps the Aggies are just bored. Two nights before trouncing first-place Utah Valley, NMSU toyed with last-place Bakersfield, letting the Roadrunners hang around and allowing an attempted 3-point attempt at the buzzer that could have sent the game into overtime. Of course, the shot was missed, and NMSU hung on for an 89-86 victory.
But if history tells us anything, it's that we shouldn't be surprised by these peaks and valleys.
Under Menzies, the Aggies haven't been a No. 1 seed in the Western Athletic Conference, yet the team has absolutely steamrolled through the league tournament the past two years on its way to the NCAAs. NMSU has won its six WAC Tournament games the past two years by an average of 14.3 points per game. That number grows to 17 points per game in the championship contest, with an NCAA Tournament berth is on the line.
This year's team has shown the same pattern.
Consider they played their worst non-conference game of the year in a Dec. 7 home loss to rival New Mexico, only to bounce back and beat the Lobos in The Pit for the second time in three years.
Once WAC play opened this season, the Aggies beat Grand Canyon, Seattle and Idaho by an average of 27.5 points per game, sparking talk of an unbeaten run through conference play. That belief quickly dissipated, however, following back-to-back road losses at Chicago State and Missouri-Kansas City, probably the two worst defeats the program's taken under Menzies.
"Coming into the year, with the talk of going undefeated and things of that nature, based off the lack of knowledge of the other teams was presumptuous," Menzies said. "Everybody is off that bandwagon of conversation with (Utah Valley) falling. Someone is going to win this thing with a some losses. You are going to get everybody's best attempt on any given night."
The gap in physical talent was immense on Saturday. The Aggies jumped out on Utah Valley early and gradually wore the Wolverines down.
It's a pattern the Aggies need to repeat in the second half of conference play.
"We respected (Utah Valley) and I feel like when we lost those two games a few weeks ago, we didn't respect them," NMSU center Tshilidzi Nephawe said. "We felt we are on top of the WAC and we would go beat everybody up."
Nephawe said the Aggies were hungry Saturday and he's looking forward to the rematch against Chicago State and UMKC in mid-February.
Basketball fans may not like the pattern, but at least the Aggies are playing like the WAC's superior team again.

Saturday, February 1, 2014

Utah Valley: Three keys and a prediction

New Mexico State has not played well the past month, I would say. The Aggies have survived for the most part. The WAC has decent players in the league, but from a depth standpoint, I've been surprised at how teams have been able to hang around against New Mexico State.

Tonight's game is not for first place, but if the Aggies lose, they likely won't win a league title, which is something everyone, especially myself, had as a forgone conclusion.

To their credit, NMSU has typically been able to get up for these types of games. Aggies cut the two game deficit in half, 72-64

Fast start: NMSU allowed Bakersfield to hang around in the first half and it nearly cost them. UVU is a balanced team with five scorers in double figures and a good coach. It won't be easy to pull away, but at home, the Aggies need to re-assert themselves as the best team in the conference. Now with their full compliment of players, NMSU needs to start getting back into a groove.

Transition: Utah Valley is a team along the lines of Utah State or Denver in terms of tempo. NMSU struggles in halfcourt offense we all know and Utah Valley leads the WAC in defensive field goal percentage at 37 percent. I think one of the under rated aspects of Sim Bhullar's absence was how he is able to spark the fast break. To do that, NMSU has to rebound. The Aggies allowed 14 offensive rebounds against Bakersfield and they were out rebounded by one. A half court game doesn't favor the Aggies.

Perimeter defense: All five players on the court can shoot for Utah Valley. 6-9 senior forward Ben Aird shoots 39 percent from 3 point range. (He's also their tallest player with 8 RPG so NMSU should make him play defense). But their best players are their guards with coaches son Holton Hunsaker (12.2 ppg, 4.2 APG) and Keawe Enos (50 percent 3 point shooter) NMSU has struggled with guard play lateley and NMSU has never been great at defending pick and pop type players .If the Aggies move to zone, they certainly have to do a better job finding shooters than they did Thursday.