20 + wins and a Top 2 seed for Aggies this year

With the season set to tip off in a few hours in Oregon, I think we all expect New Mexico State to have a good year. 

The schedule is better and the Aggies have question marks, resulting in some early losses I think. I  have NMSU going 22-9 overall, 8-5 in the non-conference and 7-5 entering Western Athletic Conference play.

I think between 13-15 wins in the WAC will put you into the Top 2 in the league standings. I have NMSU going 14-4 in WAC play.

I picked NMSU to lose tonight's opener at Oregon State, but they should beat SE Louisiana in their home opener next week. Bucknell beat Purdue on Friday night so that will be the tough game in Niagra next weekend. The Aggies can win both, lose both or split. I'm going with a split with a loss to Bucknell in another competitive game. Aggies come back to crush Northern New Mexico and Louisiana before going to UTEP, where I have them losing. 

The Aggies beat Southern Miss at home and then lose two straight road games at South Alabama and New Mexico. NMSU returns the favor against the Lobos at home and beat Missouri State at home to enter conference play 7-5.

I think the Aggies start the WAC schedule 5-0, losing at Idaho. I also have them losing at UTSA, at Utah State and at Denver.

We will see how it shakes out, starting tonight. 

More on Oregon State

Oregon State hammered Niagra 102-83 on Friday, somewhat addressing some of the concerns I wrote about yesterday.

Here is the box score.

Oregon State outrebounded Niagra 52-37, but the Beavers still gave up 15 offensive rebounds. Oregon State has some good guards in Roberto Nelson (22 points 5-8 3s) and Ahmad Starks (18 points 6-11 3s, 7 rebounds) NMSU has some guards to match up so I'm not worried about that. But forward Eric Moreland stood out with 14 points, 13 rebounds and five blocks.

"They have some really long, tall players so it's going to be a battle," Aggies senior Bandja Sy said. "We have size too but it won't be easy. We have experienced big guys. Chili is a big guy, Sim is a freshman but he has been working on his game. Renaldo is a junior with size. I think we are going to be fine."

I think Bandja Sy has to average 15-18 points this season. He told me that he knows he has to increase his scoring, but to his credit, he's always been solid on the defensive end of the court.

Another question about Bandja. Who do you think should be the closer on this team? Do they need one? do they have one. Last year, a big shot would likely go through Wendell McKines or Hernst Laroche.

Bandja would be my pick this year. He can create his own shot, shoot from long range, shoot over people, etc.

Other scores of note on Friday was Bucknell's 70-65 win at Purdue and South Alabama's 75-71 win at No. 25 Florida State.

Oregon State: Three keys and a prediction

Sunday's season opener at Oregon State on ESPNU is a winnable game, it should be a close game and a win on the road could be significant later down the road. We know that the WAC is a one-bid league, but winning games like Sunday against a Pac 12 school could be the difference between a 14 seed or a 12 seed if OSU have a successful season. NMSU could also use a win over a power conference — it hasn't happened since they beat Colorado at home in 2002. Oregon State was picked to finish eighth in the Pac 12 but it's behind the likes of Top 25 teams Arizona and UCLA  picked at the top.

Rebounding
NMSU was one of the best rebounding teams in the country last year. In an exhibition game win over Lewis and Clark, Oregon State was out rebounded 41-36 with 18 offensive rebounds against them. Oregon State does have some size with two 6-8 players and two at 6-10 that all seem to be in the rotation, although senior Angus Brandt was second on the team last year in 3-pointers attempted and looks like a player more comfortable facing the basket. NMSU has struggled keeping undersized players off the glass (think last year's Southern Miss team) Oregon State has a couple players that fit that description, namely 6-10 UTEP transfer Eric Moreland and 6-7, 295 pound senior Joe Burton. Everyone thinks the Aggies are going to be more versatile offensively, but their bread and butter is still going be defense, the inside game, getting to the foul line and offensive rebounding. If Lewis and Clark got to the offensive glass and the Aggies ranked 10th nationally last year with 14 offensive rebounds per game, it could be a source of easy buckets for NMSU.

Pace of play
Oregon State led the Pac 12 in scoring last year with 79 points per game. The Beavers will get out and run with the Aggies, who averaged 78 points per game last year. Which team can get stops though and who will win the turnover battle? NMSU held opponents to 68 points last year and 33 percent shooting from 3-point range. Oregon State gave up 72 points per game last year. If the game is played in the mid to high 70s, there are going to be turnovers. 14 turnovers is a good number for both teams, a big increase in that number will likely be the losing team.

Experience
Oregon State has four starters back and a sixth man at guard who steps into the starting lineup and Sunday will be the Beavers second game at home as they host Niagra on Friday. OSU has a game against a future NMSU opponent on Friday while the Aggies will be breaking in a new rotation for the first time on the road against a team playing its second game. Tough situation.
On the court, NMSU has two starters returning but Chili Nephawe and Bandja Sy played starter minutes last year. The Beavers have a certain experience edge at the point guard position, where junior Ahmad Starks is a two year starter going against an unproved player at the point guard spot for the Aggies. Starks is 5-9 and the leading returning scorer at 12.1 ppg while shooting 37 percent from 3-point range. Teaming with Starks in the backcourt is Roberto Nelson, who averaged 9 ppg while shooting 35 percent from 3. NMSU has guards to defend Oregon State, but the point guard position is unproven at NMSU.

Prediction
I think NMSU can win this game, but it's hard to pick a new Aggies team to go on the road against a good opponent in their first game. Especially since OSU have Niagra Friday to work out kinks and OSU had the benefit of a Euro tour in the offseason. Also looking for how the NMSU centers play defense against some versatile bigs with some size as well.

Oregon State 80, New Mexico State 75

Revised depth chart

This is just based on what I have seen on a limited basis. I think the Aggies could play up to 10 guys but teams usually shorten their bench as the year goes on. The Aggies played seven guys last  year and won a WAC title.

PG
KC Ross-Miller
Daniel Mullings
Terrel de Rouen
Tyrone Watson

Wings
Daniel Mullings
Bandja Sy
Kevin Aronis
Tyrone Watson
Eric Weary

PF
Tyrone Watson
Renaldo Dixon
Remi Barry

C
Chili Nephawe
Sim Bhullar
Renaldo Dixon
BJ West

Bhullar can only improve; PG biggest question mark?

Is Daniel Mullings the answer as a backup point guard?

Biggest takeaway for me from Monday's exhibition game victory over Western New Mexico was the biggest man on the court.

"He's a talented player," Marvin Menzies said. "He has lost a lot of weight. He is getting in condition. I think as time goes on, we have a special player. Everyone should get out and see him because he's a heck of a player and a heck of a kid. Quite frankly, I don't know if he will be here for four years."

7-5 freshman Sim Bhullar had five points four rebounds two blocks and two assists in 16 minutes on Monday.

"He's getting better every scrimmage, every practice, every game," Tyrone Watson said. "He's more mobile. He's more comfortable around the net. He's a great passer. He's not a selfish person. We use him as a decoy when play teams that can't guard him so he attracts double teams and uses us as kickouts. I thought we rotated the ball. I thought we could have had better execution but overall i thought we shared the ball as a team."

Hardly dominant numbers and he's going to face stiffer, more physical competition, but it was apparent to me that he is just scratching the surface. Remember that he broke his foot last year so he's been off a court for almost two years.

"I just wanted to see where I was at conditioning wise. I was a little surprised at myself. I thought I played pretty decent. I can play a lot better. I just have to get my feel back for the game. I just haven't been on the court in forever."

Bhullar is in a good position at NMSU. He doesn't have to score. He can focus on the two things that he seems to be best at, at least initially. Defending and passing the ball.

"I know everyone else on our team has great offense. I want to be that guy who can block the shot, stop guys from driving. Everytime people see me, I want them to be scared to come into the paint."

NMSU had 26 assists on Monday. the ball certainly moves around since the scoring appears to be more spread around this year. For the past two years, the bulk of NMSU's offense has come from one or two players on a given night.

"Ever since I was young, I played with great players. They look to get me the ball and whenever I get a chance I will go up and score. That's the way I play. I would rather get my teammates involved and get the crowd pumped. That's the part of the game I really like."

Point guard play is going to be tricky for this team. KC Ross-Miller appeared as the preferred player at that spot, playing 20 minutes with seven points, two assists, two turnovers and a steal on 2-3 shooting.

Menzies did tell me that certain players didn't come in earlier due to various reasons so that could explain Terrel de Rouen sitting the first half.

"There were some guys on the bench that came off maybe later than they normally would have. We had guys missed some mentor sessions for academics and one guy a few minutes late for shootaround. Just little things they have to understand that those things are going to impact their minutes whether it's an exhibition game or a real game."

But Daniel Mullings saw a lot of time at backup point guard. He didn't look comfortable to me.

"I thought he was good in his defensive aggressiveness but we have to reel him in. He's just got to not operate at one speed all the time. It's a different gear at point guard than it is on the wing. But he did a good job."

Can NMSU make 10 3s a game?  Probably not. But the Aggies have more players capable of knocking it down. Kevin Aronis looks to be in the top 8 and he was 2-2. Bandja Sy was 1-4 and Mullings was 1-2.

"That was the heavily talked about weakness that people harped on. We shot close to 33 percent for the year so it wasn't horrible last year. 33 percent is the magic number equivalent to 50 percent from 2. Anything above that you are in good shape. But I think we have upped that. I think we have put ourselves in a better position now to stretch defenses a little bit and not have guys as congested."

Watson, bhullar, Mullings, Sy, Renaldo Dixon, Ross Miller, Aronis and Chili Nephawe got the bulk of the minutes for the first 30 minutes. Could be an early indication of the rotation entering Oregon State on Sunday.

"There is still some room for changes right now," Menzies said. "There were some gray areas in terms of rotation for the long haul. There is still a lot of competition."

With NMSU's size everywhere, don't look for the Aggies to get up in teams and try to create turnovers. NMSU will keep the other team in front of them, defend the three and rebound. Western made its first 3 triples and finished 7-21.

"tonight we emphasized containment. they had some dribble drive opportunities.  I thought that we did overall, our anticipation off the ball, our length off the ball, our ability to rebound the ball kind of outweighed that," menzies said.

3 things to watch vs. Western

Point guard play — You are going to hear this a lot from me early on. I expect to see Daniel Mullings with minutes at the point guard position, at least early on in the season. He did it some last year, and I'm not sure about the comfort level with KC Ross-Miller and Terrel de Rouen is just yet. Like I said, Mullings backed up Hernst Laroche last year, but can he do it for a full game? And what would a starting lineup with Mullings at the point look like? Does junior college transfer Eric Aronis enter the starting five or do the Aggies go big and start someone like Renaldo Dixon and move Tyrone Watson to the wing?

Turnovers — The Aggies are going to turn the ball over, it's how they play. Without Laroche this season, the Aggies have to try to at least limit the turnovers to the 15 per game last year.

Defending — Western shouldn't score more than 70 points against the Aggies. With players like Chili Nephawe and Sim Bhullar on the floor this year, look for NMSU to keep players in front of them and make teams shoot over that length. NMSU guarded the 3 well last year and they should again, and if an opposing player does get into the lane, Bhullar and Nephawe anchoring the defense should be tough to score against if they finish the possession with a rebound.

Renaldo Dixon and Remi Barry: Two intriguing frontcourt players

The frontcourt should be an area of strength, and depth for the Aggies this year.
Tyrone Watson, Chili Nephawe, Sim Bhullar. But two players who have waited their turn could also be productive.

Renaldo Dixon has been lost the past two years behind players such as Troy Gillenwater and Wendell McKines. Remi Barry hadn't played basketball competitively for two years prior to limited appearances last year. Now it's Dixon's turn and Barry needs to show some improvement as well, moving to the No. 4 spot.

I will have a story on them on Monday, but here are some noteworthy comments.

Remi Barry played some high school in Florida, went back to France, came to California, but wasn't allowed to play. He's been in Las Cruces for three years now, nearly as long as the young man has been anywhere the past six years.

"From California to here is a big difference. Las Cruces is a little town. It took me a minute to get used to it. But now I am used to it. I feel like everybody is used to me on the team. ... It probably would have been better in my high school years to stay in one school and not switch around. But I had to do what I had to do."

On moving to PF
"It's new but I used to be a four in high school. Now I have to remember what I did in high school. I'm 232. I might look light. It's not about how big you are. It's about how hard you play. The four is more like a big wing we say. You are at the top of the key, you shoot some 3s. You get rebounds. The five is more posting up."

On time away from the court
"The speed of the game is very different. From High school to college. Coming out my senior year in high school I couldn't play, then I came here and couldn't play. It put  me behind a little bit but I will come back up sooner or later."

On the depth at the position
"I just have to be patient and keep working hard. ... I think the bench could be deep this year. Everybody on the bench can play. The chemistry this year is really good."

Renaldo Dixon was suspended last year for a period of time, but has worked his way back into the good graces of Marvin Menzies.

"I think we have one the deepest frontcourt we have had since I've been here. We go at it every day in practice and just hope to be successful. ... I got to learn a lot from those guys. At times they were both the leading scorer on the team. Last year was a learning experience. Got to learn more about the four position."

Marvin Menzies
On Renaldo Dixon
"I thought Renaldo in particular was very aggressive about his offseason development. His focus and attention to detail on and off the court is starting to show in practice. ...  I always talk about, you  have to have your classes balanced. That was his stage of his freshman and sophomore year. He was behind guys who were more experienced and more equipped to play right away. Now it's his time as a junior and hopefully more as a senior where people will know what to expect and anticipate his production."

On Remi Barry
"It's time to step up. There is no doubt. All of the hype out of high school is just that. You haven't done anything until you have done it. ... Now it's time for him to be a good decision maker daily and propel himself to living up to the potenial he has. I feel like he's better defensively at that position. I think he struggles a little with smaller quicker guys on him on the offensive end. Defensively, he has a lot of strength and he has some size. He has a better opportunity to help us defending someone of like physical characteristics rather than a smaller, quicker guard."