I spoke to Sam Wasson, who was good enough to share the following seeding scenarios. As you can see, the Aggies are very much alive for a No. 2 seed with outside chances to finish No. 4, as well as win the league with an epic collapse at Nevada.
The point is that Thursday's Hawaii game is big in terms of splitting with Hawaii to finish second.
4-0 -- 2-seed, finishes with better record than both UH and Idaho
3-1 -- L to SJSU and Idaho finishes 3-0, Aggies No. 2 b/c of sweep of Fresno State (UH finishes w/at least 5 losses)
3-1 -- L to Fresno St and Idaho finishes 3-0, Aggies No 2 b/c of higher RPI. because NMSU would have split with the same four teams
3-1 -- L to UH, UH finishes 3-1 or worse, Idaho finishes 2-1 or worse, Aggies No. 2 b/c only have 4 losses.
3-1 -- L to Nev and Idaho finishes 3-0 then NMSU No. 3 (UH finishes with at least 6 losses)
3-1 -- L to UH and Idaho finishes 3-0 then NMSU No. 3 seed (Idaho splits with UH, UH finishes with at least 5 losses)
3-1 -- L to UH and Hawaii finished 4-0 then UH No. 2 seed b/c of H2H sweep and Aggies No. 3 seed b/c Idaho finishes w/at least 5 losses.
2-2 -- L to UH, L to Nevada, NMSU Finishes 4th if Idaho finishes 2-1 (losing to UH, season split) and UH finishes 3-1 (L @ LT or vs. USU).
2-2 -- L to UH, L to Nevada, NMSU finishes 3rd if Idaho or Hawai'i lose only 1 game.