Can the Aggies run the table in the WAC?

Just two schools in the history of the Western Athletic Conference have ever run the table in league play.

That fact alone should provide enough motivation for the 2013-14 Aggies, even if the other schools that now make up the league, can't.

Players and coaches alike won't touch the topic, preparing for each game as it comes.

"If we drop one or two or three, we drop but we have to take them one at a time," said Menzies, who is 65-31 (68 percent) in WAC play. "I know it's cliche, but it's so true because there is no other option. You can't speculate on the next level."

But consider Menzies' first three NCAA Tournament teams and the level of competition the Aggies faced in 2010 (70-67 loss to No. 5 Michigan State), in 2012 (79-66 loss to No. 4 Indiana) and last year (64-44 loss to No. 4 Saint Louis). By virtue of two quality wins in non-conference play, the Aggies enter WAC play with a Top 50 RPI. If the Aggies manage to go unbeaten in league play, it would keep them on the national radar with a 23-game win streak by that point. It could mean the difference between a 14 seed or possibly a No. 12 in the Big Dance.

But lose a game, and that chance would likely be wiped out as the WAC is currently ranked the No. 22 conference by RPI according to RealTimeRPI.com.

"We would like that but we look at it like one game at a time," Aggies point guard K.C. Ross-Miller said. "We don't want to get ahead of ourselves and skip over a team. That's how upsets happen."

There has been precendce in recent years in the WAC, although the makeup of the conference was vastly different. Utah State was an at-large selection in 2010, finishing 14-2 in the WAC regular season. Utah State won 17 straight games before losing to NMSU in the WAC Tournament championship game. Utah State did not have a quality non-conference victory in 2010, but finished with a 34 RPI and a No. 12 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

A sustained win streak wouldn't be a new phenomenon for this group of Aggies, either. NMSU won 12 straight games last year in WAC play.

Putting together a win streak is no easy task considering conference play consists of two games against every team, there are six new additions to the league and road games are always a challenge regardless of the venue.

But NMSU's makeup this season seems more focused, and the level of competition is nowhere near as difficult on a nightly basis making the idea more realistic than most years.

South Alabama: Three keys unlocked

Sorry for the delayed posting from Saturday's victory, but here we go:

Keep it rolling: It was positive to see the Aggies blow out a lesser opponent at home. South Alabama closed to within 10 a couple times in the second half, but the Aggies were able to respond each time, pushing the lead out to 18 early in the second half and winning by 18 to win their fourth straight game entering WAC play. One of the question marks New Mexico State fans have endured each year it seems is wondering what the mindset of the team would be each night. I think that this year's team seems focused each night regardless of the opponent and they are deep enough to make up for it if one player is saddled by foul trouble like Bhullar was with four fouls or just has an off night, which nobody did against an inferior team, shooting 64 percent.

Rebounding: NMSU dominated on the boards on Saturday, out rebounding South Alabama 38-24 and doing it all in man to man, which is a good sign since smaller, quicker teams have hurt the Aggies on the boards this year and the WAC is full of smaller quicker team.

3-point defense: Another category where South Alabama mirrors some WAC teams. S. Alabama was 0-5 from 3 point range in the first half and finished 3-14, 21.4 percent.

"Our defense has been very strong for us and challenging the 3 will be something that we have to take a lot of pride in going into conference because that is the great neutralizer," Aggies coach Marvin Menzies said. "The one thing that got us in trouble tonight was foul trouble."

South Alabama: Three keys and a prediction

South Alabama is one of the better teams to come to the Pan American Center the past couple years. South Alabama played the Aggies tough last year (a 58-52 Aggies win) at their place, out rebounding the Aggies 38-37.

This year's South Alabama team may be even more undersized and that has been the kind of team that seems to bother the Aggies. But NMSU is on a roll right now.

 I think the Aggies win comfortably, 77-60

Keep it rolling: NMSU should be well rested. Daniel Mullings will play tonight. Marvin Menzies said he could have played against Northern New Mexico. This could be the best team the Aggies play until March with WAC play opening next week. It's a good way to get into conference mode against a team that will mirror many of the teams in the WAC, undersized, quick with more than one guy capable of hitting shots.

Rebounding: South Alabama's biggest player in the rotation is their leading scorer, 6-7 senior forward Augustine Rubit, who averages 18 and 10. I think the Aggies have a good chance to hit the offensive rebounds tonight.

3-point defense: Around Rubit, South Alabama has five players with at least 25 3-point attempts. South Alabama scores 41 percent of their 73 points per game from 3 point range, shooting 38 percent from long range. Guards Mychal Ammons and Antoine Allen each average about 10 points per game and both are shooting over 40 percent from 3-point range. Since South Alabama is a smaller team, I don't know how much man to man the Aggies will play, but they have been doing well defending the 3, holding teams to 34 percent for the year.

UNM: Three keys unlocked

New Mexico State gutted out a 67-61 victory at New Mexico on Tuesday, showing a toughness that I hadn't seen yet from this year's group.

NMSU did everything it needed to do, jumping out early with defense and playing inside-out and defending well enough to hang on.

Finish in the Paint: The Aggies did this very well, starting with center Chili Nephawe, who scored 14 points with six rebounds, five offensive rebounds. Nephawe and center Sim Bhullar scored 10 of the Aggies first 13 points, NMSU shot 41 percent in the paint and grabbed 14 offensive rebounds.

Hit open shots: The Aggies post game opened things up for open 3s. Kevin Aronis made 3 of 5 3s in the first half as the Aggies were an unbelievable 7-12 from 3 point range in the first half. The Aggies were 0-5 in second half but the ability to hit open shots helped establish an early lead.

Pick your poison: I thought perhaps NMSU would focus their defense on Cameron Bairstow, but it seemed like they focused more on Alex Kirk, doubling him in the post and hounded him into 4-14 from the field with two turnovers. Couple that with Kendall Williams not being aggressive offensively for some reason, and the Aggies held the Lobos supporting cast to 8 points.

UNM Round 2: Three keys and a prediction

I think that beating Drake over the weekend and going straight to Albuquerque the past two days were important factors for New Mexico State entering tonight's contest at rival New Mexico. Had the Aggies let that game slip away for their fifth straight loss entering a game against a team that has beaten NMSU four straight times and 11 of the past 12, they would likely not be competitive.

Tonight is the Aggies last chance at a quality win in the regular season. South Alabama is a good team, but not in the Lobos class.

Getting a victory would be nice, but it's supposed to be a sellout at the Pit, which is worth anywhere from 5-8 points. Moral victories don't count, but it would be good to see the Aggies within five in the last 5 minutes, just to see them get over the hump and be competitive in the second half after playing teams like Arizona and Gonzaga tough in the first half.

Fatigue, The Pit and the losing streak are all legitimate factors to me picking the Lobos 78-71

Finish in the paint: NMSU needs an offensive post presence to help offset UNM's duo of Alex Kirk and Cameron Bairstow. Chili Nephawe missed three gimme shots early in the Lobos 79-70 victory here in the first game. Nephawe and Sim Bhullar were both 2-8 from the field in the first game. Both players had double doubles against Drake but they have not been productive on the offensive end against quality big men with size. Bhullar was blocked three times in the first game against the Lobos. Hopefully his 22 point effort against Drake can get the big fella rolling a little bit on offense. Nephawe said he learned how to play against Cameron Bairstow in the first meeting. Aggies fans hope so because Bairstow is a handful. Bairstow can put the ball on the floor, hit the midrange jumper and get players in foul trouble. Ags need to make him play defense as well.

Hit open shots: Albuquerque Journal reporter wrote today that UNM guard Hugh Greenwood is "day to day" with a wrist injury on his shooting hand that he suffered against the Aggies. Both teams started in zone in the first game and the Lobos were the first team to hit open shots and Greenwood made two of those 3s. Greenwood is an experienced player, a great rebounder at his position and he takes care of the ball. If Cullen Neal picks up Greenwood's minutes/shots, Neal isn't strong in any of those categories and Deshawn Delaney, and Cleveland Thomas didn't look that comfortable shooting either. On the flip side, the Aggies have to make open shots. UNM didn't need to come out of their zone. Kevin Aronis and Matej Buovac each showed signs of life from long range against Drake and DK Eldridge has obviously had some big games shooting the ball although he's extremely streaky.

Pick your poison: Alex Kirk is not having a bad year, but it appears like teams have focused on him and allowed Cameron Bairstow to get rolling. I expect the Aggies to continue to pay most of their defensive attention on guard Kendall Williams and try to limit Bairstow as much as possible. I think NMSU needs to get the ball out of his hands by doubling when he gets the ball at the high post, especially if Nephawe is on him because Bairstow proved he can get by Nephawe. The ideal situation is to get one of those three in foul trouble, but that happened in the first game and the Aggies couldn't take advantage. Leaving Kirk one on one is a dangerous proposition as well. He can pull Bhullar away from the rim and is a great pick and pop player. he also drove around Bhullar a couple times off the dribble. But it's better to me than surrendering open looks for Williams and allowing Bairstow to get into the paint at will.

Arizona: Three keys unlocked

Rebound: Fairly comfortable here saying the Aggies didn't get it done. Opponents have averaged 16 offensive rebounds per game against the Aggies the past three games and Arizona had 16 offensive rebounds and 21 second chance points. As I wrote in the original blog entry, the Aggies have a hard time keeping wings off the glass because they don't have the same length they had with Bandja Sy and Tyrone Watson in the past. Rondae Jefferson had eight rebounds off the bench and he also had a dunk that ended up on SportsCenter. Arizona out rebounded NMSU 38-22 for the game as the Wildcats entered the game out rebounding teams by 14 per game.



Match up with Gordon: The Aggies mixed it up on Gordon. Daniel Mullings at 6-2 was matched up against him for stretches in man to man. All in all, the Aggies tried to make other people beat them and Arizona is a very balanced offensive team so Gordon's numbers were limited to 11 points and 4 rebounds on 5-12 shooting, but the Wildcats didn't need him on Wednesday.

Transition defense: Arizona eventually turned this game into a dunk contest but the Aggies did better in the first half, getting back, denying point guard TJ McConnell the ball. But like Arizona coach Sean Miller said postgame, the Aggies were so focused on slowing the tempo down and running the shot clock down that they weren't giving up easy baskets but they also weren't scoring easy baskets and Arizona is much more balanced offensively.

Arizona: Three keys and a prediction

I remember  a conversation with an Arizona writer that said Sean Miller would likely not return to Las Cruces after the Wildcats escaped with a victory in 2011. Miller likes playing the Aggies, but not enough to risk taking a loss. This year's Arizona is better than that team, but NMSU is receiving $95,000 for tonight's game.

It's a tough stretch for the Aggies, who between taking losses aren't able to spend much time practicing to correct whatever mistakes they are making. In games like this, mistakes loom even larger.

Wildcats win 82-67

Rebound: Normally I would consider this a strength of the Aggies, but you consider NMSU opponents have averaged 16 offensive rebounds per game that past three contests. All of the aspects that those other teams have is multiplied tonight. Arizona is out rebounding its opponents by 14 per game this season. The Wildcats have athletic big men, including a so called undersized power forward Brandon Ashley (12 and 7) and a center that can move in 7 footer Kaleb Tarczewski. Undersized post players have killed the Aggies this year. The Wildcats also have a big size advantage on the wings with 6-9 star freshman Aaron Gordon and fellow freshman Rondae Hollis-Jefferson off the bench, who at 6-7, is a driver slasher similar to Gonzaga's Gerard Coleman, who scored a career high 21 points against the Aggies, may coming from put backs.

Match up with Gordon: It's easier said than done, but the Aggies need to find a way to force Gordon to shoot jump shots. Part of the reason he's playing on the wing is for his development as a NBA player, but I'm not sure that's his strongest part of his game but he's still shooting 6-13. Renaldo Dixon could be an intriguing matchup on Gordon, or even Matej Buovac because of his length, but those are bench guys. I expect NMSU to play zone to keep their limited post player rotation out of foul trouble. If that's the case, Gordon has a significant height advantage over whichever wing player the Aggies put on the bottom of the zone, likely 6-2 DK Eldridge. Games like this, you realize the important that Bandja Sy and Tyrone Watson had on this team, both were big enough and strong enough to match up with mostly anyone at the 2-4 spots.

Transition defense: I haven't even talked about Nick Johnson yet, who happens to be the best player on Arizona's team. Johnson beat the Aggies up and down the floor in Las Cruces as a freshman. He's shooting 36 percent from 3-point range. I think the Aggies need to get back in transition because other than Johnson, the Wildcats are an average shooting team, although Gabe York comes off the bench (42 percent 3-point shooter). Point guard TJ McConnell and Johnson probably get the majority of the touches in the half court. I think those are two spots where the Aggies do match up, but they have to keep McConnell out of the paint and pick him up early.