Here is a look back at my three keys and how they played out in New Mexico State's 85-83 loss at Colorado State on Saturday.
It doesn't look good with Remi Barry's knee injury. Barry went down with a left knee injury in the first half. I asked Marvin Menzies if Barry is out for an extended period of time, what roster moves he could make. He said if Ian Baker is cleared to play, the Aggies would play smaller.
Rebounding: The Aggies didn't get it done here. CSU outrebounded NMSU 41-34 with 18 offensive rebounds that helped CSU score 18 second chance points. NMSU shot 52 percent and made 10 3-pointers, but with the 18 offensive rebounds and the Aggies 20 turnovers, Colorado State had 15 more field goal attempts than the Aggies. Giving up offensive rebounds has kept some games closer than they needed to be this year.
3-point line: Colorado State was just 4-14 and NMSU went off for 10 3s, led by DK Eldridge going 6-6 from long range. It didn't matter for the above reasons.
Free throw line: NMSU was 13-21 (62 percent) from the line and Colorado State was 21-29 (72 percent) from the line. What didn't go the Aggies way was staying out of foul trouble. Chili Nephawe fouled out against JJ Avila, who scored 23 of his 29 points in the second half. Kind of surprised Dixon didn't get more time at the four.
Saturday, November 30, 2013
NMSU at Colorado State: Three keys
Winning non conference road games is difficult.
New Mexico State already has two good road wins this year at Hawaii and at UTEP. Colorado State will be a stiff test for the Aggies this afternoon.
"We did a good job at Hawaii with an early road game and the UTEP game is kind of an enigma because of the rivalry," Aggies coach Marvin Menzies said. "This is a true road test. It will give us a true indication of where we are at."
Not only are the New Mexico and UTEP games "an enigma" but the Aggies are also somewhat familiar with those teams. NMSU as a program has generally struggled with these types of games against those upper tier conference teams, especially away from home.
This is a winnable game for the Aggies. I believe a 2-4 record these next four games would be fine as long as the Aggies compete in all six games. Anything else would be a bonus to me.
It's a toss up game on the road against a well coached team, Rams 68, Aggies 64
Rebounding: The Aggies are a terrific rebounding team, but we have seen them struggle in recent games against smaller teams, especially on the offensive glass. I watched UTEP destroy the Rams on the glass 48-29 with 16 offensive rebounds. A much smaller Northern Colorado team had 10 offensive rebounds against the Aggies. And lets not forget this is a Larry Eustachy coached team. Remember that Southern Miss team that crashed the offensive glass in two wins over the Aggies in the same season. NMSU also needs to pound the offensive glass. It's something Chili Nephawe talked about leading up to today's game.
"In their two losses, they were out rebounded in both of them and offensive rebounds are an area that we haven't been very good in," Menzies said.
Three-point line: Colorado State is only shooting 33 percent from 3-point range, but in the UTEP game, the Rams hit 8 3s in El Paso Daniel Bejarano is a strong guard, who made 4 that night. Jon Octeus, David Cohen and Joe De Ciman off the bench all shoot at least 38 percent. The Rams are at home and try to spread the court and look to kick.
Foul line: These are two Top 5 teams nationally in terms of getting to the foul line. NMSU is shooting 68.9 percent from the foul line and the Rams are shooting 73.5 percent. The team that avoids foul trouble is key. One matchup to watch is Chili Nephawe vs. JJ Avila, Colorado State's 6-7 power forward. Avila is good off the dribble and Nephawe is foul prone.
New Mexico State already has two good road wins this year at Hawaii and at UTEP. Colorado State will be a stiff test for the Aggies this afternoon.
"We did a good job at Hawaii with an early road game and the UTEP game is kind of an enigma because of the rivalry," Aggies coach Marvin Menzies said. "This is a true road test. It will give us a true indication of where we are at."
Not only are the New Mexico and UTEP games "an enigma" but the Aggies are also somewhat familiar with those teams. NMSU as a program has generally struggled with these types of games against those upper tier conference teams, especially away from home.
This is a winnable game for the Aggies. I believe a 2-4 record these next four games would be fine as long as the Aggies compete in all six games. Anything else would be a bonus to me.
It's a toss up game on the road against a well coached team, Rams 68, Aggies 64
Rebounding: The Aggies are a terrific rebounding team, but we have seen them struggle in recent games against smaller teams, especially on the offensive glass. I watched UTEP destroy the Rams on the glass 48-29 with 16 offensive rebounds. A much smaller Northern Colorado team had 10 offensive rebounds against the Aggies. And lets not forget this is a Larry Eustachy coached team. Remember that Southern Miss team that crashed the offensive glass in two wins over the Aggies in the same season. NMSU also needs to pound the offensive glass. It's something Chili Nephawe talked about leading up to today's game.
"In their two losses, they were out rebounded in both of them and offensive rebounds are an area that we haven't been very good in," Menzies said.
Three-point line: Colorado State is only shooting 33 percent from 3-point range, but in the UTEP game, the Rams hit 8 3s in El Paso Daniel Bejarano is a strong guard, who made 4 that night. Jon Octeus, David Cohen and Joe De Ciman off the bench all shoot at least 38 percent. The Rams are at home and try to spread the court and look to kick.
Foul line: These are two Top 5 teams nationally in terms of getting to the foul line. NMSU is shooting 68.9 percent from the foul line and the Rams are shooting 73.5 percent. The team that avoids foul trouble is key. One matchup to watch is Chili Nephawe vs. JJ Avila, Colorado State's 6-7 power forward. Avila is good off the dribble and Nephawe is foul prone.
Wednesday, November 27, 2013
Prairie View A&M: Three keys and a prediction
Depth: It was good to see that all Aggies players scored against Bethune Cookman on Wednesday. Chili Nephawe had a career high 18 points and Renaldo Dixon had 10 and 9. Getting Dixon minutes at this stage is always good, as well as Travon Landry and Matej Buovac. I have a feeling all of those guys will get their chance as the season goes along, but it's always good to give them some confidence.
Good time to experiment: The Aggies experimented with lineups and defensive alignments against Bethune Cookman. For example, there was a stretch the Aggies played with one post player at the high post and one under the basket while the three guards played man to man.
Containing an undersized team that can shoot: Prairie View was 6-18 from 3-point range against Colorado State. Five players have attempted at least 16 3s this season. Prairie View shoots 35 percent from 3 point range with Scott Montrael shooting 11 of 20 so far. It will be interesting to see the power forward position. I say that because Colorado State played through it's power forward, who looked to drive against a bigger player. If the four can shoot, it makes it that much more difficult.
Obviously CSU is better than Prairie View. Aggies win 76-55
Good time to experiment: The Aggies experimented with lineups and defensive alignments against Bethune Cookman. For example, there was a stretch the Aggies played with one post player at the high post and one under the basket while the three guards played man to man.
Containing an undersized team that can shoot: Prairie View was 6-18 from 3-point range against Colorado State. Five players have attempted at least 16 3s this season. Prairie View shoots 35 percent from 3 point range with Scott Montrael shooting 11 of 20 so far. It will be interesting to see the power forward position. I say that because Colorado State played through it's power forward, who looked to drive against a bigger player. If the four can shoot, it makes it that much more difficult.
Obviously CSU is better than Prairie View. Aggies win 76-55
Monday, November 25, 2013
Bethune-Cookman: Three keys and a prediction
I'm going with NMSU 83-62
Not a lot of commentary on this one other than it's the first of two games early this week that the Aggies should win easily, heading to Colorado State this weekend at 7-1.
Show up: Not to mean the Aggies can just show up and win (not entirely anyway, BCU doesnt have a win over a D I team) but the Aggies can't look ahead to what follows this weekend as the toughest stretch on the schedule by far, nor suffer a letdown after two emotional rivalry wins and a close win at home over UNC.
3-point D: I don't know if its because BC has been trailing all season, but so far the 3 point shot is 38 percent of their offense. By comparison, it's 17 percent of the Aggies offense. I've said it before most games, but the 3 is the only way most teams will have to combat NMSU's size.
Role players: I wrote last week that this could be Marvin Menzies best team from top to bottom. How deep are they? Matej Buovac and Remi Barry are both players I'm excited about, but both are struggling to get on the court right now. That should change tonight, and I expect to see more of Travon Landry as well.
Not a lot of commentary on this one other than it's the first of two games early this week that the Aggies should win easily, heading to Colorado State this weekend at 7-1.
Show up: Not to mean the Aggies can just show up and win (not entirely anyway, BCU doesnt have a win over a D I team) but the Aggies can't look ahead to what follows this weekend as the toughest stretch on the schedule by far, nor suffer a letdown after two emotional rivalry wins and a close win at home over UNC.
3-point D: I don't know if its because BC has been trailing all season, but so far the 3 point shot is 38 percent of their offense. By comparison, it's 17 percent of the Aggies offense. I've said it before most games, but the 3 is the only way most teams will have to combat NMSU's size.
Role players: I wrote last week that this could be Marvin Menzies best team from top to bottom. How deep are they? Matej Buovac and Remi Barry are both players I'm excited about, but both are struggling to get on the court right now. That should change tonight, and I expect to see more of Travon Landry as well.
Sunday, November 24, 2013
Three keys unlocked: UTEP
Other than Daniel Mullings, who do you think is the Aggies best player this season?
I would make an argument that KC Ross-Miller and Tshilidzi Nephawe have been NMSU's most important players. Both were effective in the Aggies 77-68 victory at UTEP on Saturday in El Paso. Ross-Miller scored a career high 26 points and tied a career best with 6 assists. With the new rules in play, UTEP didn't have the guards to stay in front of him and he was 11-14 from the foul line. Nephawe had 11 points and 11 rebounds on Saturday as Sim Bhullar got in late foul trouble. Nephawe also knocked down 5-of-9 from the foul line.
Foul Trouble: McKenzie Moore (concussion) didn't play on Saturday and the Miners second best player, Julian Washburn, played just 12 minutes in the first half and 26 minutes in the game due to foul trouble so the Aggies were on the better end. Sim Bhullar got in some late foul trouble and DK Eldridge fouled out, but the players who the Aggies couldn't afford to lose, Mullings (four fouls), Ross-Miller (three fouls) and Nephawe (three fouls) were relatively free of foul trouble.
Rebound again: UTEP kept it close and actually held a lead in the first half, in part due to 22-14 advantage on the boards in the first half with eight offensive rebounds. The Aggies out rebounded UTEP 16-11 in the second half and allowed just three offensive rebounds to make the final rebounding margin 33-30 in favor of UTEP. If NMSU did a better job of the glass in the first half, I think the game could have been double digits at halftime.
Return to form from 3: NMSU was 1-11 from 3-point range against Northern Colorado, making that game closer than it should have been. I think the Aggies are capable of hitting between four and six 3s per game and I think this team has at least four regulars who can get hot on a given night. It was Ross-Miller with three triples and Aronis with two that helped open things up for the Aggies, who hit 5-8 in the first half and 1-3 in the second half to finish 54.5 percent for the game.
I would make an argument that KC Ross-Miller and Tshilidzi Nephawe have been NMSU's most important players. Both were effective in the Aggies 77-68 victory at UTEP on Saturday in El Paso. Ross-Miller scored a career high 26 points and tied a career best with 6 assists. With the new rules in play, UTEP didn't have the guards to stay in front of him and he was 11-14 from the foul line. Nephawe had 11 points and 11 rebounds on Saturday as Sim Bhullar got in late foul trouble. Nephawe also knocked down 5-of-9 from the foul line.
Foul Trouble: McKenzie Moore (concussion) didn't play on Saturday and the Miners second best player, Julian Washburn, played just 12 minutes in the first half and 26 minutes in the game due to foul trouble so the Aggies were on the better end. Sim Bhullar got in some late foul trouble and DK Eldridge fouled out, but the players who the Aggies couldn't afford to lose, Mullings (four fouls), Ross-Miller (three fouls) and Nephawe (three fouls) were relatively free of foul trouble.
Rebound again: UTEP kept it close and actually held a lead in the first half, in part due to 22-14 advantage on the boards in the first half with eight offensive rebounds. The Aggies out rebounded UTEP 16-11 in the second half and allowed just three offensive rebounds to make the final rebounding margin 33-30 in favor of UTEP. If NMSU did a better job of the glass in the first half, I think the game could have been double digits at halftime.
Return to form from 3: NMSU was 1-11 from 3-point range against Northern Colorado, making that game closer than it should have been. I think the Aggies are capable of hitting between four and six 3s per game and I think this team has at least four regulars who can get hot on a given night. It was Ross-Miller with three triples and Aronis with two that helped open things up for the Aggies, who hit 5-8 in the first half and 1-3 in the second half to finish 54.5 percent for the game.
Saturday, November 23, 2013
UTEP (Round 2): Three keys and a prediction
I think Saturday's game will be interesting, but I simply think NMSU has too many players capable of scoring while UTEP has two guys who if they get hot, it could be interesting.
We remember Daniel Mullings getting into the lane for 26 points in the Aggies 86-73 victory over the Miners last week. But it wasn't all Mullings. Sim Bhullar had 11 points and four other NMSU players each had 9 points.
I'm going to go with NMSU, 84-75
Foul trouble: Bhullar fouled out late in the first game when the game was already decided and remember it was UTEP's early foul trouble to their post players that gave the Aggies an early advantage. I think if one or two of NMSU's post players and/or Mullings find themselves in foul trouble, the game would be closer. Mullings was limited to 12 minutes against Northern Colorado in the first half with two fouls. you never know how these games are going to be called yet.
Rebound again: NMSU out rebounded UTEP 37-23 last week with 13 offensive rebounds. UTEP was likewise just as dominant in a home win over Colorado State on Tuesday, out rebounding an undersized CSU team 48-29 with 16 offensive rebounds, led by impressive freshman forward Vince Hunter with 11 points and 15 rebounds. Hunter is active and athletic. He came off the bench in the first meeting for 16 points but should start Saturday. Hunter often grabbed the defensive board and starts the fast break on his own so the Aggies need to get back as well. Against a smaller UNC team, the Aggies only out rebounded the Bears by two while surrendering 13 offensive rebounds. I don't know if that's due to the lack of jump shots, but if the Miners keep it that close on the boards, the game will be closer this time around.
Return to form from 3: The Aggies aren't a great 3-point shooting team, but they need to be better than the 1-for-11 effort they showed against Northern Colorado. During that game, UNC's Connor Osborne was yelling at his teammates to sag off the Aggies guards. That makes life difficult for the big guys to operate. NMSU hit 4 3s in the first game against UTEP, matching the Miners four triples. The Aggies should hit between 4-6 triples on Saturday to force UTEP to try to come out and guard Mullings and company again.
We remember Daniel Mullings getting into the lane for 26 points in the Aggies 86-73 victory over the Miners last week. But it wasn't all Mullings. Sim Bhullar had 11 points and four other NMSU players each had 9 points.
I'm going to go with NMSU, 84-75
Foul trouble: Bhullar fouled out late in the first game when the game was already decided and remember it was UTEP's early foul trouble to their post players that gave the Aggies an early advantage. I think if one or two of NMSU's post players and/or Mullings find themselves in foul trouble, the game would be closer. Mullings was limited to 12 minutes against Northern Colorado in the first half with two fouls. you never know how these games are going to be called yet.
Rebound again: NMSU out rebounded UTEP 37-23 last week with 13 offensive rebounds. UTEP was likewise just as dominant in a home win over Colorado State on Tuesday, out rebounding an undersized CSU team 48-29 with 16 offensive rebounds, led by impressive freshman forward Vince Hunter with 11 points and 15 rebounds. Hunter is active and athletic. He came off the bench in the first meeting for 16 points but should start Saturday. Hunter often grabbed the defensive board and starts the fast break on his own so the Aggies need to get back as well. Against a smaller UNC team, the Aggies only out rebounded the Bears by two while surrendering 13 offensive rebounds. I don't know if that's due to the lack of jump shots, but if the Miners keep it that close on the boards, the game will be closer this time around.
Return to form from 3: The Aggies aren't a great 3-point shooting team, but they need to be better than the 1-for-11 effort they showed against Northern Colorado. During that game, UNC's Connor Osborne was yelling at his teammates to sag off the Aggies guards. That makes life difficult for the big guys to operate. NMSU hit 4 3s in the first game against UTEP, matching the Miners four triples. The Aggies should hit between 4-6 triples on Saturday to force UTEP to try to come out and guard Mullings and company again.
Thursday, November 21, 2013
Three keys unlocked: Northern Colorado
The Aggies escaped with a 67-63 victory over Northern Colorado on Wednesday. The Bears took a 3 for the win before Daniel Mullings sealed the deal with a three point play. Perhaps the Aggies aren't sweating if they shoot better than 1-11 from 3 point range and 14-25 at the foul line. But the Aggies won their 13th straight game at home and move on to UTEP at 4-1
Before I look back at the three keys for the UNC game, how good has Mullings been on the offensive end the past three games. Mullings has posted 20 points for three straight games for the first time in his career. He's averaged 22.3 points per game for wins over Hawaii, UTEP and Northern Colorado. He's shooting 52 percent on the season, but he's 61 percent the past three games. It's somewhat impressive since teams obviously know about him now. He only reached 20 points twice in the Aggies last 13 games last season.
3-point defense: The Aggies didn't allow a lot of easy looks from 3-point range. UNC was 38 percent from the field, shooting 6-18 (33 percent) from 3-point range, 3-9 in each half. Tate Unruh was 0-4 from 3-point range after entering 40 percent from long range entering the game.
"I thought we did a great job defending the 3," Marvin Menzies said. "It might have been our best defensive half of the season. They shot 33 percent in the second half. And we didn't foul."
Rebounding: I don't think the Aggies did well here. NMSU outrebounded UNC 40-38. The Bears shot a lot of jump shots, leading to 13 offensive rebounds, which resulted in 21 second chance points.
Interior: NMSU went to the paint early and often against a smaller team. Sim Bhullar was 4-4 from the floor in the first half but he didn't have another shot. Chili Nephawe was 1-6, Remi Barry was 3-4 and Renaldo Dixon was 4-6 as the Aggies shot 48 percent from the floor and scored 36 points in the paint.
"We had a lot of little bunnies that we missed that we have to make at home," Menzies said. "I think the free throws hurt us. We missed 11 and a lot of those were front ends. We probably left 10 points right at the basket in the first half."
Before I look back at the three keys for the UNC game, how good has Mullings been on the offensive end the past three games. Mullings has posted 20 points for three straight games for the first time in his career. He's averaged 22.3 points per game for wins over Hawaii, UTEP and Northern Colorado. He's shooting 52 percent on the season, but he's 61 percent the past three games. It's somewhat impressive since teams obviously know about him now. He only reached 20 points twice in the Aggies last 13 games last season.
3-point defense: The Aggies didn't allow a lot of easy looks from 3-point range. UNC was 38 percent from the field, shooting 6-18 (33 percent) from 3-point range, 3-9 in each half. Tate Unruh was 0-4 from 3-point range after entering 40 percent from long range entering the game.
"I thought we did a great job defending the 3," Marvin Menzies said. "It might have been our best defensive half of the season. They shot 33 percent in the second half. And we didn't foul."
Rebounding: I don't think the Aggies did well here. NMSU outrebounded UNC 40-38. The Bears shot a lot of jump shots, leading to 13 offensive rebounds, which resulted in 21 second chance points.
Interior: NMSU went to the paint early and often against a smaller team. Sim Bhullar was 4-4 from the floor in the first half but he didn't have another shot. Chili Nephawe was 1-6, Remi Barry was 3-4 and Renaldo Dixon was 4-6 as the Aggies shot 48 percent from the floor and scored 36 points in the paint.
"We had a lot of little bunnies that we missed that we have to make at home," Menzies said. "I think the free throws hurt us. We missed 11 and a lot of those were front ends. We probably left 10 points right at the basket in the first half."
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