Southern Miss: Three keys and a prediction

Southern Miss is a different team than the team that beat the Aggies on two occassions last year. The problem is they are just as good, if not better.

Southern Miss is 6-0 on the season under first year coach Donnie Tyndall, who replaced Larry Eustachy. The two biggest differences between last year and this year, Southern Miss presses for most of the game and they play zone defense for most of the game. Under Eustachy, Southern Miss was a man--to-man team. The results have been similar. Southern Miss is still hard to score on and the Golden Eagles haven't been out rebounded yet despite an undersized rotation.

Handle the press: I wrote about the Aggies' turnovers problems yesterday. NMSU has averaged 23 turnovers in their past three games against DI opponents. Southern MIss's press is a 2-2-1 zone press and all of the players are basically the same size and athletic. Southern Miss won't necessarily press full court the whole game, but it is capable of turning teams over. Like the Aggies, Southern MIss wants to score in transition and creating 16 turnovers per game helps them do that. This game should be more open than the UTEP game.

Handle the zone: Southern Miss plays a 2-3 zone after picking up full court. Two ways the Aggies can beat the zone. Offensive rebounds, which I will talk about, and hitting some 3s. Daniel Mullings is shotting 50 percent at the Pan Am from 3-point range, Kevin Aronis is shooting 46.7 percent and Bandja Sy is averaging 10 ppg at home.

Dominate the glass: Southern Miss is undersized, but they were last year as well and outrebounded NMSU in both meetings. Somewhat surprising is the Golden Eagles getting to the offensive glass against the Aggies in both games. Southern Miss hasn't been out rebounded yet this year. NMSU couldn't get enough of an edge on the boards against UTEP, which bogged their transition down and allowed UTEP to get back. NMSU needs to score on offensive rebounds, which from watching past Aggie teams play the zone, the zone leaves the defensive team vulnrable to offensive rebounds.

Marvin Menzies and Bandja Sy each said the Aggies should, key word, should, be ready to play against the 2-2-1 full court zone press and the 2-3 zone. NMSU plays both defenses, going up against it in practice. But the Aggies haven't shown much of either defense thus far.
"I'm a little more concerned about it than I would be had we been going up against it in practice," Menzies said. "It's a similar zone to the one that we play and are going to play but we just haven't put it all in yet. They use different levels of pressure with it so there is a concern with the way we handled the pressure at UTEP, which was not very well."
If the Aggies continue to rebound well, and take advantage of an undersized team on the offensive boards particularily, it can neutralize Southern Miss in transition, where they are deadly. Not a great 3-point shooting team either so it sounds like they depend on their defense for their offense.
This should be a faster game and turnovers may cancel each other out as Southern Miss also turns the ball over.

Final score, New Mexico State 72, Southern Miss 67

Was it a foul?

Was Chris Washburn over the back? Did Chili Nephawe have position? Was it a no-call?

Here is some video that includes the foul that put Washburn on the line to beat the Aggies. Thanks to Duke Keith.

Turnovers robbing Aggies of early wins

Daniel Mullings has narrowly missed potential game winning shots in losses to Niagara and UTEP — both games the Aggies had late leads. NMSU by 20 in the first half at Niagara and a four-point lead in the last 1:34 on Wednesday, a two point edge with 26 seconds left. The common thread in both games was turnovers.

Perhaps the Aggies biggest weakness was exploited in the first possession of Wednesday’s 55-54 loss at UTEP as the Aggies turned the ball over 20 times leading to 22 points.

The Miners trapped sophomore point guard KC Ross-Miller as soon as he touched it on two of NMSU’s first three possessions for two of Ross-Miller’s five turnovers as the starting point guard.

But to single KCRM out would be unfair. Fellow starters Bandja Sy, Tyrone Watson and Chili Nephawe had four turnovers each. Ross Miller had nine points, two assists and two steals in 28 minutes. Terrel de Rouen had three points, an assist no turnovers in 12 minutes. Both of them had their moments but I wouldn’t say either can be trusted at this point down the stretch of a close game.

A lot of talk about the double dribble on Watson that gave the Miners the ball back with 24 seconds left. It spoiled what was initially a very smart play by Watson. He threw the ball off of Julian Washburn’s back before the Miners could set up their press because neither Sy nor Ross-Miller could get open but UTEP bailed them out with one of their many fouls to give. So Watson got the ball cleanly and raced up court.

“We probably could have managed it a little bit different,” Menzies said. “Maybe we dribble it out and get fouled, get spacing. We had a timeout I believe. Maybe he thought he had numbers and you never want to stop a roll if he’s going to get a lay up.”

Sy had a turnover with 43 seconds left that helped the Miners get to 54-52 with 26 seconds left.

“We lost the game with turnovers. They caused some of them. They are a good defensive team,” Menzies said.

So against the last three Division I teams the Aggies have played, NMSU has averaged 23 turnovers per game, losing two of those games on missed last second shots by Daniel Mullings.

UTEP 55, NMSU 54

I think the Aggies got a bad call when Chili Nephawe was whistled for a foul with five seconds left when it looked like he had position against Chris Washburn. 

But 20 turnovers for 22 UTEP points stood out just as much as a foul call in that situation. NMSU had their way in the first half, got into the paint with Watson or Ross-Miller off the dribble, but there was a five minute scoreless streak that cost them their lead. 

Daniel Mullings had his jaw wired shut on Tuesday. I believe the injury that fractured the jaw was suffered at Niagara, and then his face was cut against Louisiana. Menzies said he can play through it for the next four weeks, but his minutes should be monitored. He played 27 minutes on Wednesday. Here is the story.

EL PASO — For the second straight year, the New Mexico State men’s basketball team couldn’t close UTEP out at the Don Haskins Center.

NMSU led the rival Miners by four with 1:34 to play, but a potential game-winning Daniel Mullings 3 at the horn rimmed out and UTEP beat the Aggies 55-54 on Wednesday in El Paso.

“We lost by one and we had 20 turnovers,” Aggies senior Tyrone Watson said. “If you do the math and you minus that by 10 we probably win by seven.”

 Mullings played 27 minutes despite having his jaw wired shut on Tuesday in addition to stitches remaining in his face from a fall against Louisiana. He hit a long two at the end of the first half to give NMSU a four-point edge, but his 3 from the top of the key at the final horn hit the front rim, bounced off the backboard and again hit the rim before rolling out.

“That shot at the end, I put my whole heart into that ball as he shot it,” Watson said. “It was just off.”

Aggies head coach Marvin Menzies said Mullings’ jaw will remain wired closed for four weeks but the sophomore guard can still play through that time.

But it wasn’t Mullings’ heroic effort that stood out. It was NMSU’s 20 turnovers that cost the Aggies (3-4) a winnable game on the road.

“We lost the game with turnovers,” Menzies said. “They caused some of them.”

The Aggies went nearly five minutes late in the second half without scoring, but an 8-2 flurry edged the Aggies to the brink of their first win at UTEP since 2009. NMSU went up 54-50 with 1:34 to play as Mullings put back a Watson air ball as the shot clock expired.

NMSU switched to a 2-3 zone for the first time the next time down but John Bohannon found an opening and converted a three-point play to close the Miners to within one with 27.2 seconds left.

“They were doing the same stuff the whole game, there was just missed opportunities,” Watson said. “It was a rough five minutes. We were playing defense but the offense was kind of off but we had our chances at the end of the game.”

The Aggies turned the ball over on their next two possessions. The second turnover was Watson’s fourth as he threw the inbound pass to himself off Julian Washburn’s back, dribbled to half court but was called for double dribble.

“Turnovers are an issue and I’m going to take some blame for that too,” Watson said. “I had a handful today. I was trying to make some plays, which I thought were there which probably were not there.”

Chris Washburn provided the final points, converting a one-and-one with 5.9 seconds left to play.

NMSU center Tshilidzi Nephawe was called for the foul that sent Washburn to the line, as Newphawe appeared to have position on the block for a defensive rebound on a Bohannon miss.

“The officiating is what it is,” Menzies said. “It (fouls) was at 7-2 at one point. I thought if it was a close game they could manage the game. I’m not too happy with the officiating but it’s the road.”

UTEP head coach Tim Floyd had the advantage at that point as the Miners still had two fouls to give. Jacques Streeter used one of them to stop Mullings at halfcourt with two seconds left, plenty of time for Mullings to take the inbounds play, dribble to his left and get a decent look.

Mullings finished with seven points, six rebounds, two assists and four steals. Watson had 13 points, all in the first half.

Game stats were even up and down the board between two rivals starving for a quality win, with the exception of one glaring number.

NMSU had 20 turnovers and UTEP had 13. The Miners turned those turnovers into 22 points.

“I’m proud of the guys with their effort but when you take steps to get better, you want results,” Menzies said. “We weren’t going to get results because we didn’t get better tonight.”

Tim Floyd on "junk defenses"

Tim Floyd says the box-and-1 and triangle-and-2 defense that he uses to frustrate the Aggies first came about at Iowa State in the 1990s.

"Probably around 1994-98 to stop a player like Paul Pierce would be my guess," Floyd said. "It has been effective for us at times. You have to give the opposing coaches credit because if it works one time down the court, you don't know if it's going to be as effective the next time. You are always trying to eliminate the best two scorers on a team however you might do that."

With respect to this year's UTEP team, NMSU could see some box and 1 or triangle and 2. The Aggies don't have one player like last year and Wendell McKines, but Floyd isn't exactly praising his team defensively so far this year.

"We are primarily a man to man team, but we do things to try to disrupt the other team, but we haven't been good at any of it," Floyd said. "We need to be practicing at this point rather than playing games to be honest with you."

Floyd isn't high on his team's rebounding either, stressing getting back in transition instead of trying to challenge teams on the glass. It could help the Aggies get some easy points. NMSU's rebounding rate is 62 percent and UTEP collects 41 percent.

"We are not a dominant rebounding team and we are not winning on the offensive boards," Floyd said. "So we try not to give up points in transition. Unfortunately we have not been good there either. We are giving up a lot of lay ups and 17 foot jump shots."

UTEP: Three keys and a prediction

I think the Aggies can win this game on the road, but I'm not as confident as I was for the road game last year. Let me refresh your memory. UTEP point guard, then junior Jacques Streeter, denied Wendell McKines the ball in a box-and-1 defense. Meanwhile, the Miners were red hot offensively, hitting 11 of 14 for a 24-6 lead with 13 minutes left in the first half. McKines didn't attempt a field goal in the first half and finished with 4 points. NMSU took McKines out of the game, started making shots and actually led by five with 7 minutes left but UTEP outscored NMSU 10-4 in the last four minutes.

Patience offensively: The Aggies don't have a single player capable of scoring like McKines this year, so I'm not sure if the Aggies will see a box and 1 or triangle and 2 at least to start the game. But the Miners do want an ugly game and a slow game in the 50s so NMSU will have to score somehow in the half court. The way NMSU has done that and likes to do that are get the ball inside, drive to the rim, grab offensive rebounds or get to the foul line. One thing I noticed is that the Miners are allowing teams to shoot 49 percent from 3-point range, so they are giving up open looks. We will see if NMSU can knock them down. Turnovers also play a role in patience offensively. Against Louisiana, the Aggies guards were in such a hurry to push the ball that they often gave it away before they even got to half court. NMSU post players are also giving the ball away. NMSU has had recent 24 and 26 turnover games. That number has to fall back down to around 14 to win.

Marvin Menzies on UTEP defensively:
"Tim will do that even to who is hot that game. If you have a guy who is scoring really well, even if it's not a prolific scorer but if he gets going in that game, Tim will match up with that guy. ... You just have to understand what your advantages are spacing wise as far as getting high percentage shots against that type of defense. A lot of people call them junk defenses, but if you can perfect a junk defense and I think Tim has done that. ... It's something to prepare for. You don't want to get too far off what you do but you have to be aware that it can get your team out of sync if you're not ready for it."

Defend and rebound: Two things the Aggies have done well for the better part of the last two seasons. I was happy to see NMSU center Tshilidzi Nephawe with double-doubles against the Aggies last two Division I opponents but the level and size of competition picks up again pretty much for the rest of the season and I think Nephawe has to at least maintain his 6.2 rpg if not increase it for the Aggies to be successful. UTEP sophomore Cedrick Lang is 6-9 and has started at the four all season. The surprise to me has been 6-10 junior John Bohannon, who leads the team with 10 ppg and 60 percent from the field. UTEP also has 6-8 freshman Chris Washburn coming off the bench. UTEP hasn't caught fire from long distance yet and the Aggies need to keep that trend going. I think NMSU has length on the perimeter to accomplish that against Streeter, Washburn and Ragland.

Quick start: As noted above, a slow start killed the Aggies last year. Obviously you don't want to fall behind on the road, but I think especially against a team that appears to lack confidence/weapons offensively at this point in the season, if the Aggies play their game, get the rebound, get some transition and putbacks, they could put early pressure on the Miners and make a limited offensive team have to play catch up.

Matchups to watch:
PG —Jacques Streeter vs. KC Ross-Miller, Terrel de Rouen
Menzies: "They've got a senior and we have two sophomores still trying to find themselves a little bit that are improving."

Wing — Bandja Sy vs. Julian Washburn — Washburn is a 6-7 sophomore who is averaging under 10 ppg and shooting 11 percent from 3 point range. Sy is 6-8 and was also off to a slow start offensively. Smaller players have bothered Bandja, but this is a matchup he could potentially succeed in.
Menzies: "Julian, I think is a phenomenal defender. They are both long athletic guys with pretty good midrange games. Hopefully we will have an edge there with experience but we are on the road."

UTEP's Gabriel McCulley was a marginal player who looked like Kevin Garnett last year against the Aggies. He's gone and NMSU has some decent matchups if Nephawe and Sy play as well as I think they can. I think NMSU can win and I picked them to lose this game going into the season. With or without Daniel Mullings, I think NMSU gets a lead early and holds on for a 65-60 victory on the road.

Menzies on Mullings

Menzies' comments on Tuesday indicate the Aggies are being cautious with Aggies guard Daniel Mullings leading up to Wednesday's game at UTEP.

Mullings hit his head on the Pan American Center floor diving for a loose ball against Louisiana on Friday. He took eight stitches with cuts above his left eye, as well as around his mouth after biting through his lip on the play. With the wounds still fresh and the possibility of concussion symptoms, Menzies said Mullings was under evaluation.

"Right now, it's something we are just kind of watching. He's moving in the right direction. It's a matter of time before we know what all that means. He's going to the doctor again today. There are symptoms you can look at to determine if he had (a concussion) or not. We are going through the process of that now. His health is obviously more important."

If Mullings can't go, I expect either guard Kevin Aronis or forward Renaldo Dixon to take his place in the starting lineup.